Strait of Hormuz oil event study
An event-driven discovery of domestic oil companies’ success during the Hormuz Crisis, from not having much operation in the Strait to begin with. See the US oil basket’s success amidst a shakedown in the S&P 500 (SPY).
Tap an event to mark it on the chart.
Shaded region = ceasefire risk zone. Iran agreed to partial reopening Apr 8; gains eroded as resolution risk rose. Strait remains largely closed as of Apr 28.
On February 28, 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. This study tracks the two months that followed, not the Gulf producers caught in the disruption, but the 22 US oil companies that don’t operate in the region and stood to benefit from it.
Each name is measured as cumulative return from the close on Feb 27, the day before the strikes, and equal-weighted into a single non-Hormuz basket benchmarked against the S&P 500. The basket climbed as the conflict escalated, peaking at +21.8% on March 27, the day of the US 48-hour ultimatum, while the S&P 500 was down at roughly -7% over the same stretch. Once a ceasefire began on April 8, the edge eroded as resolution risk rose, and the basket settled near +9.6% by April 28, still well ahead of the index.
That gap is the supply-chain effect trade-policy research predicts: a disruption abroad becomes a tailwind for domestic substitutes, even when the broad market falls. Following ceasefire talks, the signals became more unpredictable as the market became more convinced Hormuz would reopen.
- Universe: 22 US producers with little-to-no Strait-of-Hormuz exposure, domestic E&P and US LNG names (USO, VG, APA, SM, CHRD, MTDR, EOG, FANG, COP, DVN and others).
- Method: cumulative return from the Feb 27 close, equal-weighted into the basket and compared with SPY, with key escalation and de-escalation events marked along the timeline.
- Data: price history from Massive.com; revenue-geography screening via SEC EDGAR 10-K filings to confirm little-to-no Middle-East operations.